14 Jul Down in a Deep Blue Hole – Part 1: How Deep?
Joe Biden is a living symbol of where the Democratic Party is and has been since Barack Obama finished his two terms: Both Mr. Biden and his party are old, broken down, and facing a rough road ahead. Fewer and fewer people want to be associated with them.
Just how bad is it for Democrats in 2025, at the peak of Donald Trump’s power? Rham Emanuel, President Obama’s chief of staff in the White House and a former Democratic congressman, foreign ambassador, and Chicago mayor, calls his own party’s brand “toxic” today. He admits Democrats have become viewed as the party of “weak and woke.” Tim Walz, Minnesota’s governor and the Democratic number two last November, says the party is in danger of becoming “roadkill.”
Others describe the party as “wandering somewhere between the desert and the wilderness” and finding itself “near irrelevance.”
It is that bad. And not only is this situation a crisis for the party, but Democratic weakness is harmful to America, which needs at least two strong political coalitions to keep each other in check.
The Data is Horrible and Getting Worse
Let us look at the numbers. First, only one-third of American adults currently hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party, with well over half holding unfavorable views. These are historical lows. (By comparison, the Republican Party, which is not exactly living its glory years, has a 45% favorability rating – its highest mark since 1992.)
Then there is the fact that only 27% of Americans say Democrats are focused on helping people like them. Only 39% say Democrats value work. More people see the Democratic Party as out of touch “with the concerns of most people” than they do either Donald Trump or the Republican Party. Despite the president’s approval ratings sinking to his personal low, Americans trust Mr. Trump over congressional Democrats by 37% to 30% (with another 30% trusting “neither”), on the question of who can solve our country’s problems.
In the last presidential election, Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, failed to win the majority of votes from households with incomes under $50,000, which is unique for a Democrat. Only as to white college-educated voters did Ms. Harris increase Democratic margins from those in 2020, as her 2024 numbers declined from Joe Biden’s 2020 results with voters who were women, had no college degree, or were Hispanic, African-American, or young.
Geographically, only in 57 counties throughout the entire United States have Democrats increased their vote share in each of the last three presidential elections. This despite having well-experienced candidates in Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris. At the same time, Republicans have gained votes three elections in a row in 1,433 counties.
To state the obvious, none of these numbers fits in a formula for future Democratic success.
What is the Problem?
In political pundit speak, the difficulty is three-fold: (1) the Democratic Party lacks the necessary ingredients for a lasting majority, given that its identity group and issue-oriented coalitions have deteriorated; (2) the party fails to articulate a clear and attractive platform; and (3) its geographical strength is limited to coasts and cities (where even there it is shedding support).
Let’s break those three factors down into non-political language.
As we saw in the data above, Democratic votes declined in 2024 within key segments of the party’s strongest traditional blocs, including women, young people, black voters, Hispanics, and people with incomes under $50,000. These drops may have resulted from the party’s perceived weakness on crime and real-life economic issues like paying rent, putting food on the table, having a good job, and affording education or health care. At the same time, the special-issue caucuses (e.g., climate and LGBTQ+ activists) within the traditional Democratic coalition are too small, or were distracted by kitchen-table concerns, to carry the day. The Democratic Party also has become the party of the college educated, which is a declining minority; and it is the party of big government at a time when public confidence in governments and other institutions is dropping.
As to the 2024 Democratic platform, voters apparent said “your baby is ugly.” All I want to add here about the positions Kamala Harris took is that it was insufficient to shout the dual refrains of “I’m not Donald Trump” and “I will strive to ensure you can get all the abortions you need.” Ms. Harris either lacked time to develop, or neglected to drive home, a stronger set of beliefs than that. She failed even to make clear that hers would not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency, so we cumulatively assumed it would. More broadly and recently, 65% of voters in mid-February of this year agreed with the statement that “no one has any idea what the Democratic Party stands for any more, other than opposing Trump.”
Regarding the third factor, the Democratic Party’s limited and reduced geographical strength, the data in the previous section of this post speaks for itself.
Lastly, the party’s leaders were too weak to steer Joe Biden away from running for reelection, to help any would-be replacement candidate, or to negate fringe extremist groups within their own coalition.
Next Week
Part 2 of this analysis will explore where Democrats want to go from here, what must be important to them, who may lead the party out of its deep hole, and which strategy those leaders should follow.
Written by Quentin R. Wittrock, founder of Principle Based Politics.
Look for his periodic posts, as this blog and the Extremely Non-Extreme podcast will explore and promote the idea of principles and oppose extremism in politics.
Principle Based Politics does not endorse or support any particular political candidate or party.
DKnight
Posted at 17:37h, 16 JulyWell researched blog post about Dems being in a hole. But I’m not buying it. I am not taking a shot at your post. I believe reality is much different than the current polling about the Democratic Party. Rather, the USA has been, unfortunately, trending left for a long time, with government control expanding. The Dems control: K-12 education/Teacher’s unions, Government employees–city/state/county/federal, Gov employee unions, Colleges/Higher Education, Information flow–90% of media are pro-dem and anti-republican, (excepting FOX and some powerful podcasts, etc.), Blue cities with the larger population centers, etc., etc. The Dems are likely to take the House back in the midterms. It is the GOP and limited government types, that are lacking in power. Don’t overestimate current polling or underestimate the Dems–they have out worked the republicans for decades. Like Western Europe before us, as well as other places around the world, democracies/republics devolve towards over-sized government. The canary in the coal mine is chirping about the rise of socialism, not the demise the Dems.
Quentin
Posted at 01:02h, 17 JulyYour argument is well reasoned. You will see my assessment of the Republican plight in two weeks, after Part 2 of the current piece.