05 Nov What I Will be Watching Tonight
Pay no attention tonight to comments of the party representatives, as they will stand on their heads to avoid revealing how the results really are coming in.
Pay no attention to individual members of the public who are interviewed, as they likely are shown because they have something outrageous to say. Each is just one of more than 150 million likely voters.
Pay no attention to who is “leading” any race in which only a small percentage of the precincts have reported, because pinning your hopes on early returns will only lead to disappointment. Things change.
What I will be paying attention to tonight are the following.
Key Contests
First, obviously, there are the results in the presidential “swing states.” Polls will close first in the easternmost of those states: Georgia (6 p.m. CST), North Carolina (6:30), Pennsylvania (7), and Michigan (7). Next will be Wisconsin (8) from the central time zone, along with Arizona (8) and Nevada (9) from the southwest. Do not expect anything close to final in any of these states until after 10 o’clock Central – and much later for Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona.
While waiting for the presidential winners in those states to be “called,” I am going to follow several congressional races, which I believe will be indicative of the direction any “wave” in the election is flowing. These include:
- Minnesota’s Second Congressional District (Democratic incumbent Angie Craig against Trump-backer Joe Teirab). To me, despite any Packer-Viking or Badger-Gopher rivalries, I expect the presidential results in Wisconsin to be similar to those in Minnesota’s neighboring Second District. In other words, if Teirab upsets Craig, that bodes well for Donald Trump in Wisconsin.
- Similarly, Democrat Amy Klobuchar, seeking her fourth term in the U.S. Senate from Minnesota, no doubt will win. But, if Trump-resembling challenger Royce White, the Republican nominee, comes within 20 points of Klobuchar, that portends very poorly for Kamala Harris. Klobuchar has won her past elections by 20.2 percent, 34.7 percent, and 24.1 percent, respectively.
- Pennsylvania, which is the most likely state to provide the margin of electoral college victory to either Harris or Trump, also has a U.S. Senate race this year. Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. is facing Republican Dave McCormick. If McCormick wins, that is another good sign for Mr. Trump’s chances in this crucial state.
- Ohio always used to be a bellwether state, and it will see Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown trying to hold his U.S. Senate seat against a challenge by Bernie Moreno, another Trump acolyte. The polls in this Ohio race, like those in the presidential race in the seven swing states, have been extremely close. A Moreno win could be another signal of a red wave.
- Wisconsin, which Joe Biden won by 0.63 percent in 2020, will be close again this year. The U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin against Republican Eric Hovde also could foretell the presidential outcome. At the very least, control of the Senate itself will be impacted.
Later in the evening, I will be watching trends from U.S. Senate races like Texas (big-name Republican Ted Cruz against Democrat Colin Allred), Arizona (an open seat with Democrat Ruben Gallego against Republican Kari Lake), Montana (incumbent Democrat John Tester challenged by Republican Tim Sheehy), and Nevada (Republican Jackie Rosen against Sam Brown, a Democrat). There is a strong chance the upper chamber will flip to a Republican majority this year.
I also am curious how controversial candidates will do, as I wonder if they can overcome their reputations. For example, I wonder about whether Mark Robinson, a Republican, can get elected Governor of North Carolina despite posting bizarre things on pornography sites. I wonder if Lauren Boebert will win a U.S. House seat in Colorado despite her proclivity for misbehavior. I also wonder how obnoxious candidates like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Ilhan Omar, and Matt Gaetz will do in their own U.S. House races.
Most importantly of all, I will be looking for finality. Will we have results by the end of the night? Will losers concede their races? Does it even look like we will know the winners by the end of the week? The month? The year? Please!
Personal Interests
As many of you know, I sought nomination this year for the U.S. House of Representatives in Minnesota’s Third Congressional District. I will be highly interested to see how the race goes between Tad Jude (who beat me out) and Kelly Morrison in the western suburbs of the Twin Cities. How the presidential candidates fare in my home congressional district also will be of keen interest. Joe Biden won my area by 19 points in 2020.
I also will be eager to see how other candidates I met during my campaign do, such as Kathleen Fowke in Minnesota Senate District 45, and state house candidates Danny Nadeau, Kristin Robins, Andrew Myers, Scott Simmons, Kathy Burkett, Steve Pape, Stacy Bettison, and Josh Jungling.
Last but not least, I will be watching how Larry Hogan, the governor of Maryland until 2023, does in his U.S. Senate race against Democrat Angela Alsobrooks. Hogan, a moderate, reasonable Republican with a great haircut (Google him, and you will see why I like it), has disavowed Donald Trump.
Written by Quentin R. Wittrock, founder of Principle Based Politics.
Look for his posts each week, as this blog will explore and promote the idea of principle in politics, both as to individual elected leaders and our federal government as an institution.
Principle Based Politics does not endorse or support any particular political candidate or party.
James Loerts
Posted at 13:37h, 05 NovemberElection night is always exciting even though I lose as often as I win. That adds to the anticipation I guess.
Quentin
Posted at 13:38h, 05 NovemberI distinctly remember the first election you truly “won” — as a candidate yourself.