Trump’s First Quarter Grades

On March 4, 2025, after fewer than 45 days in office, Donald Trump declared victory. In his speech to Congress that evening, President Trump announced that he had “accomplished more” than all former presidents and pulled off “the most successful” start to a term, ever. (George Washington is in second place, he said.)

Most independent political analysts wait to assess a new presidency until after the much-scrutinized “First 100 Days.” As my attempt to get the scoop on such media pundits, this post looks at Day 1 (January 20) through Day 91 (April 21) – one-fourth of a year.

For the sake of simplicity, I will use a letter grade system and issue a quarterly report card here, with explanations:

Economics is the first course in which any newly elected president must study quickly, appoint advisors, and work diligently right from the start of the term. This subject involves freeing up markets for hiring, wages, and business investment, which freedoms result in growth of our national gross domestic product.

In March, President Trump started warning of the possibility of a recession (i.e., at least two consecutive quarterly GDP declines), yet he also said that “after a period of transition . . . we’re gonna become so rich, you’re not going to know where to spend all that money.” We best look at the actual numbers. At the end of the Biden Administration, GDP growth was approximately 3%, unemployment was around 4%, and inflation had fallen to 3%. Since then, although the United States added 228,000 jobs in March, unemployment has increased slightly to 4.1% in February and 4.2% in March. First quarter GDP will not be released until next week, but we do know that inflation has fallen to 2.8% in February and 2.4% in March.

The results of the “Trump tariffs,” which are defended as boosting factory jobs in America, will not be known for a long time. As an unwanted side effect, they also could cause additional inflation.

Another test of economic strength often cited by President Trump himself comes via the stock markets. When Mr. Trump took office, the S&P 500 stood at 5,996.66 and the Dow Jones at 43,487.83. On April 21, those markets closed at 5,158.20 (down 14% from January 20) and 38,170.41 (down 12.2%), respectively. GRADE IN ECONOMICS:   C+.

A second mandatory course is International Studies. Wars, immigration, alliances, and global trade relations all are covered in this curriculum. To these, President Trump has elected to take on expansion of America’s territory.

“Ending endless wars” was one of Candidate Trump’s campaign promises, including his boast that he would stop the war in Ukraine on Day One. “I was being a little sarcastic when I said that,” President Trump now says about Ukraine, as all of the same conflicts rage on.

Campaign promises to “close the border” have been more fruitful for the Trump Administration. In March, a record low number of illegal border crossings occurred – continuing a downward trend that has existed for a year. Threats of mass deportation seem mainly to be just that to date (for good or bad, depending on one’s perspective). In March this year, for example, 12,300 people were deported, compared to 12,700 during March of 2024. Whatever actually is occurring on deportation, there can be no doubt that the threats are decreasing the level of illegal immigration, and they probably are causing “self-deportation,” too.

Tariffs and trade have been President Trump’s worst bugaboo this quarter, as nearly everyone in the world knows. He announced tariffs, paused them, reinstated them, limited them, issued exemptions, withdrew exemptions, threatened more tariffs, and so forth and so on. This ruckus has scared citizens, investors, businesses, and foreign leaders alike. Most notably, President Trump’s inflammatory statements have diminished the value of America’s international alliances, our dollar, and our credit. GRADE IN INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: C-.    

Accounting – Our federal government spent $154 million more during President Trump’s first quarter than in the first quarter a year ago, as the impact of the Department of Government Efficiency’s work has yet to be realized. To pass this course in the long run, President Trump will need to do his homework on the budget process, tax policy, and the national debt. These take more than a quarter to master. GRADE IN ACCOUNTING: I (Incomplete).

A fundamental freshman class is U.S. Government, which covers the basics of the U.S. Constitution, such as democracy and separation of powers. As head of the Executive Branch, the president also must be proficient in managing the size, scope, and productivity of the federal bureaucracy.

To date, much has been trumpeted regarding these subtopics. Elon Musk and his chain sawing Musketeers, for example, have been retained to do the trimming, but their early work has been long on presentation and short on positive effect. Similarly, the President’s mastery of government powers and our constitution seems more focused on shock and awe than on checks and balances, statesmanship, and passing actual legislation. Use of executive orders to bypass Congress and the courts – not to mention doing so to have dominion over education, businesses, media, law firms, and foreign nations – does not equate to governance. In summary, the president and his core team are not playing well with the class, which is fundamental in this course. GRADE IN U.S. GOVERNMENT: D-.

Another prerequisite for all other courses is an introductory module in Law. The law curriculum includes basic lessons on the criminal justice system, due process, the rule of law, and the role of courts. In short, President Trump has not shown motivation to learn any of these topics himself, and whoever is advising him (assuming someone is) seems to be ineffectual. Pardoning the January 6 rioters merits a major deduction. GRADE IN LAW: D.

Health is an entry-level subject that even middle schoolers take. For federal politicians, however, the important tests focus on complex topics like research, the cost and availability of health care, and disease prevention and control. Knowing when and how to get good medical and scientific advice is a crucial component. I have not seen evidence of progress in these areas during President Trump’s first quarter, but perhaps more time is needed. GRADE IN HEALTH: I (Incomplete).

One requirement of any president is to lead the citizenry to have hope for the country’s trajectory and future. Consumer confidence levels and polls on whether the country is “headed in the right direction or wrong direction” can be early marks in this catch-all course called Psychology. While the members of his MAGA base believe their leader is excelling, the majority of the nation begs to differ. Grading here on a curve compared to his dull predecessor, and being open to the possibility of improvement as the term proceeds, I will be generous (you have to give a student at least one decent grade as encouragement to keep trying, right?). GRADE IN PSYCHOLOGY: B-.