29 Oct Better Off Than 4 Years Ago? 5?
The first presidential election as to which I was old enough to vote was 1980. Ronald Reagan was trying to unseat incumbent Jimmy Carter that year, and Reagan successfully did so largely because he asked Americans this now-famous question: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”
Donald Trump is implying that same question now, believing it obvious that Americans should answer “No!” Kamala Harris argues that for most of us, the answer is “Yes!” For many, how they respond to the question depends on who they want to win the election. If you want to “Make America Great Again,” you probably mean “like it was when Trump was president.” If you want Harris to win, you probably think America is much better off and more stable now than it was under Trump.
As no big fan of either major party candidate’s “platform,” I decided to evaluate America’s wellness objectively. Because “four years ago” was skewed by being right in the middle of covid, I also took a look at October 30, 2019, which was five years ago and at the peak of the Trump presidency. Below are the results.
2020 Vision
The first set of factors relate to household economics. “It’s the economy, stupid,” was James Carville’s famous quip when asked about the most important issue in a presidential election. “Americans vote their pocketbooks,” is another way of putting it. Therefore, let us analyze a few economic statistics for 2024 (Biden-Harris), 2020 (Trump covid), and 2019 (Trump pre-covid):
Unemployment
2024: 4.1 percent
2020: 6.9 percent
2019: 3.6 percent
Inflation
2024: 2.4 percent*
2020: 1.4 percent
2019: 2.3 percent
*There also were larger price increases from 2021 through 2023 that have not come down.
Retail Gas Prices (October average)
2024: $3.14
2020: $2.15
2019: $2.64
Stocks (S&P 500, as of October)
2024: 5,800
2020: 3,200
2019: 2,900
Wages (September average hourly earnings)
2024: $35.36
2020: $29.47
2019: $28.16
Interest Rates (October prime rate)*
2024: 8.00 percent
2020: 3.25 percent
2019: 4.75 percent
*Any impact of this depends on whether one is a saver or borrower.
The above are personal economic issues, for the most part. In addition, there are national “pocketbook” factors to consider.
Additions to U.S. National Debt (total during presidential term)
2021-24: $5 trillion
2017-20: $8 trillion
Gross Domestic Product Growth (total during presidential term)
2021-24: 11.8 percent
2017-20: 7.6 percent
Let’s look now at non-economic issues that may sway some voters.
Murders (per 100,000 people)
2024: 4.2
2020: 6.4
2019: 5.0
Fentanyl-related Deaths
2024: 60,000 (projected)
2020: 40,000
2019: 35,000
Military Deaths by Hostile Action
2024: 0
2020: 9
2019: 21
Illegal Immigration Attempts (October or closest-month data available):
2024: 58,000*
2020: 95,000
2019: 65,000
*This was much higher from 2021 through mid-2024.
Results May Vary
So, are we better off? Needless to say, one person may be much richer, happier, and safer than four or five years ago, depending on individual circumstances. Another person’s life may have deteriorated in various ways. My guess is that not many of these changes in either direction were caused by the federal government directly, although some are influenced by governmental policy. And several of these changes are a culmination of years of policies and other factors – not a point-in-time cause and effect, and certainly not caused by a single human being.
One thing I do know is that our country, in the last four years, has not become “the garbage can of the world,” as our former president said last week. Nor is America a “failed nation,” a “nation in decline,” or a country being “laughed at” by the world, as Mr. Trump claims, repeatedly.
Before President Trump took office, under his leadership, and since he left office, the United States has been and still is a great nation. We are “well off,” and have not been much better or worse off under one of the last two administrations or the other.
Your 2024 vote is about your projection of who would do better over the next four years, based in part on their past performances and on what you think presidential principles and priorities should be.
Written by Quentin R. Wittrock, founder of Principle Based Politics.
Look for his posts each week, as this blog will explore and promote the idea of principle in politics, both as to individual elected leaders and our federal government as an institution.
Principle Based Politics does not endorse or support any particular political candidate or party.
Annette Beseman
Posted at 13:44h, 30 OctoberVery helpful!
Darwin
Posted at 15:18h, 30 OctoberFour years ago we were beginning the Covid pandemic. Schools closed, restaurants for take out only, work at home, toilet paper shortages, etc. So no, we were not better off four years ago. Trump completely botched government response resulting in many additional deaths including my mother’s (Quentin’s aunt Arlene).
Michael Olkives
Posted at 19:16h, 30 OctoberWow! Interesting data. Let’s look at a couple. Unemployment obvious. Inflation – as you say went up significantly in the recent data. Largely due the increase in gas brought on by the current administration. Stocks sharply went down due to Covid not as a result of the administration. By the way, the states that shut everything down fared no worse than the ones that remained open; oh, except for the fact that the states that totally shutdown businesses lost significantly more of them. Wages as they go up increases the cost of products. Not a surprise there. Interest rate, are you kidding me? Depending on borrowing or saving.? What if you need to get something for your growing family like my son. You don’t have the choice to buy a house at the current rate. There are other points I could make including the choice of Kamal’s vice president (have you really not considered his history?). I get it, is there that much of a difference. Yeah, there is. Most middle class Americans feel it or someone like Trump wouldn’t be running for President.
DKnight
Posted at 21:53h, 30 OctoberMr. Q, with respect, you do have TDS. Plus, again, honestly, no offense intended, but I don’t trust your stats. The FBI and dems/media manipulate stats constantly. Crime stats have become unrealiable because some of our largest cities are restricting access to information, or not providing said information. Unfortunately, in the absence if solid verification, we cannot take information provided by government, the media or academia at face value. We all must get past Trump’s rhetoric–especially if he is elected. Let’s focus on what people do, what policies are pursued, etc. Both sides are full of b.s. rhetoric. There has been a constant narrative, since Biden was elected in 2020, that everything is better than we all think it is. In other words, our life experiences are inaccurate and we must believe the controlled information fed to us by the media/dems/institutions. No matter who wins next week, the folks are not buying that everything is fine or getting better–because it is a false narrative.
Quentin
Posted at 22:06h, 30 OctoberIf we are to go by our own life experiences only, then, I’m here to tell you things are going much better than the stats indicate. That’s just based on the life experience of me and my immediate family.
Paul Silseth
Posted at 23:51h, 30 OctoberThe President or their administration really has little to do with the stock market. It goes up and down in every administration. Blame one praise another. And it isn’t accurate either way. I do not look to Trump for a moral leading. But, a Harris WALZ administration? wow Quinten, are you a closet lefty. You don’t see what she has surrounded her self with?
Do you actually want a Harris WALZ administration but don’t say it because you will lose your conservative following.?
They call Trump Hitler, What about the moral abortion issue?
I haven’t unsubscribed yet, waiting to hear your take on next weeks results.
Quentin
Posted at 02:14h, 31 OctoberI don’t “want” any particular politician or administration. I want principled leadership focused on improving the lives of the citizens of our country.
Anonymous
Posted at 00:59h, 31 OctoberYep, you are an accomplished person that has done well. For some of us, we may be making a few more bucks and things are going ok. But the middle class is shrinking, there are higher crime issues, (especially in large population centers where they don’t want to report it), and there are clearly problems related to an uncontrolled border, etc. There are some signs that we are moving in the wrong direction–this is felt across political lines. I type these posts fast–so bear with my spelling and grammatical errors.
Quentin
Posted at 02:11h, 31 OctoberI agree that statistics can be manipulated. I recall the old saying: “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Rick F
Posted at 12:59h, 31 OctoberI always enjoy reading these articles and the feedback. My opinion on the govt/media and their stats they “feed” us is ALWAYS hesitant. True, Many people died because of Covid 19. Also true, Many people die every year from the flu, colds, & other Covid variances. We were told Covid 19 was from a bat. If you still believe that, that’s on you. We were told to take multiple shots and we would not get virus or spread it. This also is not true. In the 1930’s & 40’s Jews were told to give up their firearms in Germany for their safety…….. What the Government/media tells us MIGHT be true but it is up to each of us to hesitate from what we hear on ALL media outlets and do more of our own research as well as relate them to our own life experiences. Not a fan of either of these candidates for various reasons and why I am voting on policies. To me that is an easy decision. And for how this election turns out, Either way I will be going back to work each day, many people in government are depending on my state & federal tax dollars……… but hey, you do what you believe………
Doug Wyman
Posted at 23:35h, 31 OctoberQuentin, If I accept your data, it’s interesting how important commentary is missing except for a brief note about covid. Your data basically says, Trump is lying and exaggerating since pretty much on average things are the same. Things are far worse then what the numbers say. I’m really thankful you didn’t get the GOP nomination. Tade Jude is superior in every way to help President Trump move this country in the right direction. We can disagree with some of Trumps ideas, but generally he will try to correct the biggest mistakes of the last 4 years.. I was at the CD3 convention and heard your two speeches, the last one being quite a blast of yelling, which is one reason why you didn’t go any further. The other being you appeared to be anti-Trump. President Trump;, with all his faults, sometimes generalized exaggerations and blunt rhetoric (which I like because he speaks like the common man), is not working to weaken the US into submission to a global government like the leftists are doing. You’re (and I mean you) are either going to get behind Trump in support of him and the GOP and get rid of any degree of TDS you appear to have or you are part of the problem, like the leftist propaganda media focusing solely on Trumps flaws. If you agree with Trump and the GOP on 80% of the important issues, then I strongly suggest you get on board. If not, then you have exposed yourself. Bring your ideas to the table, but get behind Trump.
Quentin
Posted at 00:54h, 01 NovemberI can see something I wrote (or failed to write) really upset you, Doug. One thing I should make clear is that Principle Based Politics is a not-for-profit and cannot “get behind” any candidate. By law, nonprofits cannot do so, or they lose their nonprofit status. As a candidate through my Quentin for Congress campaign organization, things were different.
Doug Wyman
Posted at 16:18h, 09 NovemberReally upset? No. Irritated with apparent attitude toward President Trump? Yes. My response was to you not PBP.