10 Jun About Minnesota Politics
Here is a snapshot of the recent history of my adopted state’s governance: Minnesota has been widely regarded as an increasingly “blue state” for most of the time since I moved to the north in 1986. Exhibit A is that Democrats have won every statewide election since 2006. Exhibit B: No Republican presidential candidate has won this state since Richard Nixon’s reelection in 1972.
Before Republicans give up hope or Democrats get overconfident, however, they should consider the evidence that Minnesota may be more politically competitive than they think. This is due to the stark difference between the Twin Cities metro area and outstate Minnesota. The state’s delegation in the U.S. House of Representatives includes four Republicans (all from outstate) and four Democrats from the Twin Cities. The Minnesota House is deadlocked at 67 to 67. The state senate is 34 to 33. The most recent state auditor race was decided by only 8,400 votes, and the 2022 attorney general election also was decided by less than one percentage point.
Nor should anyone forget that it was only 27 years ago when Minnesota elected Jesse Ventura, an independent, as governor.
In short, recent party politics in the Gopher State have been…goofy.
The Parties’ Current Problems
If this recap of the not-so-distant past fails to worry partisan stalwarts, perhaps an honest look at their current plight will.
Let’s start with the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. The DFL leader, at present, is Tim Walz, who just six months ago failed to help his national presidential ticket win even one swing state. He cusses a lot and wears casual clothing, but Governor Walz still can’t convince very many neutral parties that he is “one of them.” Moreover, the Harris-Walz combination received less than 51% of the 2024 presidential vote in Minnesota, against Donald Trump (who they consider to be an absurdly bad candidate). In 2024, President Trump received a higher vote percentage in Minnesota than he had in either of his previous elections.
Other factors working against the DFL include a budget blowout in the most recent biennium, its members’ failure to show up for work on the House floor this session so as to prevent a quorum, and the numerous other scandals referenced in my post, Minnesota, Mini-Sense (Feb. 12, 2025). Although he was talking about the national party, Governor Walz may have best described his state party by admitting recently that Democrats are in danger of becoming “roadkill.”
The Minnesota Republicans? Let’s just say the state party is struggling to pull together. At the big GOP fundraising dinner last month, none of the four Republican members of the state’s congressional delegation attended. Party establishment is at odds with (to put it mildly) a group called Action for Liberty. It is too long of a story to tell here.
The best case a MNGOP fundraising letter could make this month was as follows: (1) “President Donald Trump is crushing the liberals in Washington, DC” and (2) “Tim Walz and his radical allies are desperate to stop him.” On this basis, loyalists were asked to send donations immediately to defeat Walz, and to make “Minnesota and America Great Again.” Although that pitch may or may not raise funds from the MAGA base, I’m not sure how many voters that logic would attract in 2026.
2026 Minnesota Races
Speaking of those 2026 statewide elections, both Republican and Democratic candidates are lining up across Minnesota. In the race to fill the U.S. Senate seat of Tina Smith, who is retiring, DFL options already include Angie Craig (currently U.S. House, CD2), Peggy Flanagan (current Lieutenant Governor), and Melisa Lopez Franzen (former state senator). Republicans Royce White (defeated by Sen. Amy Klobuchar in 2024) and Adam Schwarze (former Marine and Navy SEAL officer) have thrown their hats in the ring.
The race for Minnesota Governor will be even more interesting. Republicans Kendall Qualls (unsuccessful in past federal and state elections), Brad Kohler (who even I outlasted in our 2024 congressional race), Phillip Parrish (a veteran and teacher), possibly Scott Jensen (who lost to Walz in 2022), and several others either are running or considering it.
Tim Walz, the aforementioned Democratic incumbent, has yet to declare himself a candidate for re-election, and he appears to be trying to set up a run for the presidency in 2028. It is unclear who the DFL will nominate if Walz does not seek to remain in the governor’s mansion, although Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon is expected to run if Walz does not.
I think the candidates – let alone the results – are quite unpredictable at this point. But I guarantee they will be quite goofy. It is Minnesota politics, after all.
Written by Quentin R. Wittrock, founder of Principle Based Politics.
Please share this with your friends, both in and out of Minnesota.
Look for Quentin’s periodic principled political posts, as this blog will explore and promote the idea of principle in politics, both as to individual elected leaders and our federal government as an institution.
Principle Based Politics does not endorse or support any particular political candidate or party.
James Loerts
Posted at 13:07h, 11 JuneAs an out-of-stater I have no dog in this hunt. But as a political junkie I greatly enjoy watching all the ups and downs of politics in the great north. It is fun. It also shows how complicated humans can be.
Darrin
Posted at 15:18h, 11 JuneMelisa ended her Senate campaign a couple weeks ago.
Quentin
Posted at 16:07h, 11 JuneThanks for the update, Darrin.
DKnight
Posted at 18:15h, 11 JuneSometimes I can be harsh in my criticism, but the truth can be painful. The MNGOP has been poorly run for decades. MN republicans have ignored Minneapolis and St. Paul and been out-worked by the dems. The republicans have also been lame in our congressional district. It is a blue state that should be red. Gov. Walz is the latest in a long line of almost strange politicians from this cold state. Sen. Wellstone, Ventura, Gov. Perpich, Gov. Dayton–we have had our share of unusual elected leaders. Walz may be the most strident in his leftism and the most ridiculous with his childish rhetoric. Walz was a thug during Covid–he is an embarrassment. But the folks elected him. There is a strain of old world socialism that seems to be in the blood of many Minnesotans with northern European roots. Unless and until the MNGOP gets it act together, MN will remain in the icy grip of Giant Government.
Lynn Nehrig
Posted at 12:17h, 13 JuneThank you for putting all this together. I would just love to see a republican win the Tina Smith senate seat!