16 Dec Don’t Overplay Your Hand
Lawyers are taught not to ask “one question too many.” This means once you have coaxed a witness to admit the truth, stop. Similarly, investors are warned not to “get greedy,” advice from which everyone can benefit. And card players often learn the hard way not to bid too high, double down, or go all in on a decent (but flawed) hand.
Politicians and their political parties should learn especially the third version of the above cautionary advice: Avoid overplaying the cards dealt you. But they seldom learn this, as history this century proves.
Through a series of fortuitous events, the Republican Party and Donald Trump have won the White House, retaken the U.S. Senate, and retained a U.S. House majority. Also, many Republicans feel assured of backing from a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court. All of this provides another perfect setup for an overplayed hand.
Democrats Did It in Spades
Minnesota’s DFL trifecta went all in with control of both branches of the legislature and the governor’s office in 2023. They passed an unlimited abortion law and an assisted suicide bill, they spent the entire $18 billion state surplus, and they dramatically increased the 2024 budget, among other actions.
At the federal level, new presidents in 2009 (Barack Obama), 2017 (Donald Trump), and 2021 (Joe Biden) each also overreached when they had majorities in the U.S. Senate and House behind them. Because Biden’s excesses are the most recent and best remembered, let us examine them as an example of what not to do.
In short, Joe Biden abandoned his reason for running and getting elected, which was to evict Trump and stabilize the White House, uniting the country as it recovered from the traumas of covid and chaos. Biden was to bring normalcy. Instead, somehow apparently believing he had a mandate for progressive policies, President Biden doubled down on federal stimulus spending through the so-called “American Rescue Plan,” “Build Back Better Act,” and “Inflation Reduction Act,” while expanding student debt relief, making it easier for illegal immigrants to get into and stay in our country, playing identity politics, and generally trying to become the hero of the far-left wing of his party.
Like Presidents Obama and Trump before him, Joe Biden’s party lost control of the U.S. House two years after he was elected and then lost the Senate soon thereafter. Now, of course, the Democrats have lost the White House as well.
This is what happens when you overbid a mediocre hand: you go bust, often in big way. “Bid high, sleep in the streets,” as my wife’s grandfather used to warn during our pinocle games.
Trump and the GOP Likely Will Overreach, Too
Far-left overreach often leads to far-right swings (and vice-versa). Not ones to need history or anything else to guide them, expect Donald Trump and his party in 2025 to repeat such mistakes – if not overplaying their hand to new heights.
Look for Mr. Trump and his minions to focus on retaliation, kick horses that are down, and stomp on graves. They already are pushing some unqualified, retributive, and otherwise unpalatable cabinet members. Moreover, they are touting “Day One” promises like mass deportation, tariffs, firing and prosecuting Trump’s enemies, pardoning his supporters, ending support for Ukraine, eliminating all vestiges of “woke” and “DEI,” and undoing whatever Joe Biden did.
Not least among Republican overreaches will be forcing through in one bill all of the following: extending 2017 tax cuts, enacting new tax breaks, enabling “drill, baby, drill,” and closing the borders, all while keeping campaign promises not to “touch” Social Security and Medicare. (This is where a vision of a nation “sleeping in the streets” comes to my mind.)
Like Joe Biden, the Republicans will claim a mandate to do these things. But ramming them through in an unwieldy and overstretched omnibus “budget bill” will be overplaying their hand. It is exactly what Republicans have criticized Democrats for doing under other administrations, including those of Tim Walz in Minnesota and Joe Biden in Washington, D.C.
Yes, “the dog has caught the car,” and Republicans have gotten their way in Washington. Having been dealt a strong hand, however, the GOP now should play it very wisely. Republicans should decide, first, what they are for, rather than what they are against. Then they should govern, in the best interests of all Americans. Given their power, the Republicans actually could do something that takes guts, like fixing Social Security and Medicare.
Don’t get me wrong; I do want to see what Trump promised: all wars end favorably, inflation ends, illegal immigration also ends immediately, the economy prospers, and criminal activity stops or is prosecuted.
I’m begging him, though, to play his hand prudently, truly conservatively, and with regard to the interests of his fellow players. This is not an inconsequential game of cards.
Written by Quentin R. Wittrock, founder of Principle Based Politics.
Look for his posts each week, as this blog will explore and promote the idea of principle in politics, both as to individual elected leaders and our federal government as an institution.
Principle Based Politics does not endorse or support any particular political candidate or party.
M Weiler
Posted at 14:27h, 17 DecemberI would agree with you and this advice.
Paul Silseth
Posted at 14:54h, 17 DecemberIf there was ever a post I could respond to with Yes, Yes, Yes,Yes and more yes’s this it!
Thanks Quentin!
Dave Glesne
Posted at 16:57h, 17 DecemberWell said … and good advice!!
Russ Weaver
Posted at 17:35h, 17 DecemberI would be interested to hear your comments about Trump’s first term. Did he do what you have warned him not to do in his second term? We’ll have to wait and see what Trump does. I’m reminded of a quote by James Baldwin that sums up my feelings about the future of our country:
I can’t believe what you say, Because I see what you do ~ James Baldwin
Quentin
Posted at 17:58h, 17 DecemberI don’t recall Trump 1.0 overplaying his hand as badly as he threatens to in Trump 2.0. He tried to do so, but was thwarted in some aspects. His biggest overreaches occurred starting in 2020, and particularly after he lost the election.
Gary Russell
Posted at 20:30h, 17 DecemberSo here is a question for the readers: Do you believe the majority of the voters WANT him to “overplay” it? Or…do you believe they (the Trump electorate) just wanted border control and lower prices without all the drastic cuts in Gov’t? The DOGE “drain the swamp” was part of the platform.
Anonymous
Posted at 20:48h, 17 DecemberIf history is any guide, (and people seem to lack all sense of history/precedent), the dems will take back the House of Reps in 2026. Trump and the GOP have a short time to do a lot. There is institutional rot in our current big government model that must be rooted out. Many people on both sides do not understand that our government needs reform. So, Orange Man, who is more active and accomplishing more from a distance as a president-elect–than Biden the lying/bumbling fool has done in 4 years–must be aggressive. He will face resistance from institutionalists in his own party, the media and the dems. Now is the time to be bold. In general, you never want to overplay your hand. But, in our current phase of government and media corruption, fixing what is broke will not be overplaying a hand. Trump must get the populist/freedom train going and change things for the better. If he does well despite the intransigence he will face–maybe he can turn history–and expand his mandate with electoral wins in 2026. It won’t be easy. Good luck to Trump.
Quentin
Posted at 21:49h, 17 DecemberThanks for chiming in, Darren. (The “Orange Man” reference reveals your identity.)
DKnight
Posted at 23:55h, 17 DecemberI forget to put my name on these posts–not trying to hide.
Quentin
Posted at 00:22h, 18 DecemberI know!