29 Oct Better Off Than 4 Years Ago? 5?
The first presidential election as to which I was old enough to vote was 1980. Ronald Reagan was trying to unseat incumbent Jimmy Carter that year, and Reagan successfully did so largely because he asked Americans this now-famous question: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”
Donald Trump is implying that same question now, believing it obvious that Americans should answer “No!” Kamala Harris argues that for most of us, the answer is “Yes!” For many, how they respond to the question depends on who they want to win the election. If you want to “Make America Great Again,” you probably mean “like it was when Trump was president.” If you want Harris to win, you probably think America is much better off and more stable now than it was under Trump.
As no big fan of either major party candidate’s “platform,” I decided to evaluate America’s wellness objectively. Because “four years ago” was skewed by being right in the middle of covid, I also took a look at October 30, 2019, which was five years ago and at the peak of the Trump presidency. Below are the results.
2020 Vision
The first set of factors relate to household economics. “It’s the economy, stupid,” was James Carville’s famous quip when asked about the most important issue in a presidential election. “Americans vote their pocketbooks,” is another way of putting it. Therefore, let us analyze a few economic statistics for 2024 (Biden-Harris), 2020 (Trump covid), and 2019 (Trump pre-covid):
Unemployment
2024: 4.1 percent
2020: 6.9 percent
2019: 3.6 percent
Inflation
2024: 2.4 percent*
2020: 1.4 percent
2019: 2.3 percent
*There also were larger price increases from 2021 through 2023 that have not come down.
Retail Gas Prices (October average)
2024: $3.14
2020: $2.15
2019: $2.64
Stocks (S&P 500, as of October)
2024: 5,800
2020: 3,200
2019: 2,900
Wages (September average hourly earnings)
2024: $35.36
2020: $29.47
2019: $28.16
Interest Rates (October prime rate)*
2024: 8.00 percent
2020: 3.25 percent
2019: 4.75 percent
*Any impact of this depends on whether one is a saver or borrower.
The above are personal economic issues, for the most part. In addition, there are national “pocketbook” factors to consider.
Additions to U.S. National Debt (total during presidential term)
2021-24: $5 trillion
2017-20: $8 trillion
Gross Domestic Product Growth (total during presidential term)
2021-24: 11.8 percent
2017-20: 7.6 percent
Let’s look now at non-economic issues that may sway some voters.
Murders (per 100,000 people)
2024: 4.2
2020: 6.4
2019: 5.0
Fentanyl-related Deaths
2024: 60,000 (projected)
2020: 40,000
2019: 35,000
Military Deaths by Hostile Action
2024: 0
2020: 9
2019: 21
Illegal Immigration Attempts (October or closest-month data available):
2024: 58,000*
2020: 95,000
2019: 65,000
*This was much higher from 2021 through mid-2024.
Results May Vary
So, are we better off? Needless to say, one person may be much richer, happier, and safer than four or five years ago, depending on individual circumstances. Another person’s life may have deteriorated in various ways. My guess is that not many of these changes in either direction were caused by the federal government directly, although some are influenced by governmental policy. And several of these changes are a culmination of years of policies and other factors – not a point-in-time cause and effect, and certainly not caused by a single human being.
One thing I do know is that our country, in the last four years, has not become “the garbage can of the world,” as our former president said last week. Nor is America a “failed nation,” a “nation in decline,” or a country being “laughed at” by the world, as Mr. Trump claims, repeatedly.
Before President Trump took office, under his leadership, and since he left office, the United States has been and still is a great nation. We are “well off,” and have not been much better or worse off under one of the last two administrations or the other.
Your 2024 vote is about your projection of who would do better over the next four years, based in part on their past performances and on what you think presidential principles and priorities should be.
Written by Quentin R. Wittrock, founder of Principle Based Politics.
Look for his posts each week, as this blog will explore and promote the idea of principle in politics, both as to individual elected leaders and our federal government as an institution.
Principle Based Politics does not endorse or support any particular political candidate or party.
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